Spin Cycle

Except for superdelegate flow, every sign for the last few weeks has been bad for Obama: Weakness in the suburbs in Pennsylvania, weakness among independents, the Wright disaster, a collapse among white working class voters, getting on the political wrong side of the gas tax issue, dropoffs in national polls, signs of momentum for Clinton in both Indiana and North Carolina.

We've viewed the superdelegates as an artificial measure, used by the Obama campaign to distract the media from the deterioration in its position. Now, the best sign of what's happening is coming from the candidates' mouths.

Remember when, after Pennsylvania, NC was supposed to be a safe, double-digit win for Obama? Here's what Obama said today after a press conference in Indiana to blast Clinton on the gas tax:

“We’ve had a rough couple of weeks, I won’t deny that. ... I don’t think what happened with Reverend Wright was helpful ... I have no doubt that these are going to be tight races -- they have been tight throughout.”

That's "races" -- plural. But NC has not been tight throughout. It was supposed to be an easy, rack up the margin win. He has to have it to hold serve. Now, he's worried.

Then, look at what Clinton said today:

"This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country -- probably even a lot of the world -- is looking to see what North Carolina decides."

She's not hedging -- she's raising the stakes for NC, a state she is supposed to lose. Which means that she's confident on Indiana, and hearing some very good things about North Carolina. Also: See this analysis from the folks at NBC's First Read, titled "Obama's Back to the Wall."

Do Obama backers understand what's going on here? There is a widespread notion that Obama remains the big favorite even if he loses NC and Indiana, because he has an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates. But that doesn't make a lot of sense. He's got to win an election occasionally, doesn't he?