Everyone expects Obama to lose in Pennsylvania. The conventional wisdom seems to be congealing that "how much" is the important question -- less than double-digits is good for him, more than 10 is good for Hillary.
Hillary, however, is rebelling at the idea that Obama shouldn't be expected to outright win: "Why can't he close the deal?...With his extraordinary financial advantage, why can’t he win a state like this one if that’s the way it turns out?”
And some in the media are buying. ABC's Jake Tapper: "What's so crazy about the idea that the Democratic frontrunner -- flush with cash and outspending Clinton 3-to-1, running against a candidate with such high unfavorable ratings -- should be able to win a blue state primary?...Why can't the frontrunner win working class voters?"
This all seems rhetorical.
The race is close. Both candidates have large bases of support. The peculiar race-and-gender dynamic of the race has contributed to both bases digging in their heels. The closeness of the contest and the clout of an ex-president have prevented party leaders from forcing a conclusion. Why not ask why Hillary can't close the deal? She was the inevitable frontrunner. Why couldn't she win a state with a caucus, or one of the 30 she's already lost?
Tapper apparently didn't notice that Obama is having no problem at all with black working class voters. The problem is with white working class voters -- especially women -- who have suddenly, inexplicably become attached to Hillary Rodham Clinton of Park Ridge, the White House and Chappaqua just at the very moment she runs against a black guy. What an incredible coincidence!!!!
Does it occur to him that part of the problem -- not the whole problem, just part -- is race? And that Pennsylvania is a state that has a lot of white working class voters for whom race may be an issue? That's exactly what Gov. Ed Rendell said a month or so ago. That is indeed a problem for his candidacy -- just as Hillary's total inability to attract African-American support is a problem for hers.
The accepted reality of this race for a couple months has been that there are two candidates with big pluses and big minuses. You can't suddenly turn on a dime and spin that away by saying that one is the loser if he can't break away. A close race is decided by who gets more delegates -- even if it's just two more. Right now, Hillary is behind by 800,000 votes and 142 total delegates.
Clinton can't talk herself into a new set of Democratic primary rules in midstream under which the person who wins the most big states gets the nomination. The race has always been for votes across the whole country. She has a lot of ground to make up.
So once you sift through the born-yesterday rhetorical questions, that's why she needs at minimum a double-digit win in Pennsylvania.