Spin Cycle

A rich new Marist poll out this evening, with lots of interesting findings that are a little troubling for Democrats and a little hopeful (compared to recent political hopelessness) for the NY GOP.

A John McCain/Condi Rice tickets beats both a Hillary/Obama ticket and an Obama/Hillary ticket, 49-46 or 49-44. A much stronger showing than a McCain/Lieberman ticket. In one-on-one matchups -- Hillary only beats McCain 48-46, while McCain beats Obama 48-46.

At least in NY, you would expect all that to melt away once the Dems pick a nominee -- but it's certainly a sign that the Democratic fighting is not helping, and that McCain has been running a good message campaign since he won his nomination.

In the state: Paterson's unfavorable ratings double -- double! -- in his first month, as the don't-know-enough number drops from 48 to 32. So his favorability rating is just 35-32, and the first impression seems to be a bad impression for a lot of people.

To be contrasted with the most highly-rated state elected official:

That would be AG Andrew Cuomo, who has a favorability rating of 59-34. But, despite a 24-point advantage on favorability.... he wouldn't in his wildest dreams contemplate challenging Paterson, and putting personal ambition ahead of party harmony. Never.

Actually, in projected matchups with Republicans Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Giuliani, Paterson fares a bit better than Cuomo. The biggest laggard, looking forward to 2010, is Long Island's own Pete King, who shared his gubernatorial dreams with the NYTimes last week.

Only 21 percent of NYers want King to run, lowest among the names polled. He's dramatically unknown (33 percent are unsure) but 46 percent say they don't want him to run. In projected matchups, he trails Paterson 59-23, and trails Cuomo 59-31.

Maybe he'd lead Suozzi. But they didn't bother to poll Suozzi.

Here's the link to Marist/