Spin Cycle

It's a given that, in the real world, Eliot Spitzer's crack-up will have no impact on the Democratic presidential race, aside from the possible loss of a superdelegate who was pledged to Clinton. Nonetheless, there's lots of speculation.

The conventional wisdom seems to be that it's bad for Hillary -- partly because he's from New York so it is somehow an embarrassment for her, and partly because it will remind people of the Sexcapades of the Clinton White House, and cause them to want to avoid a repeat.

We think that's wrong. We think it actually hurts Obama.

First, politically Bill Clinton's affair with an intern was great for Hillary, earning her both sympathy and respect for the way she handled it, and skyrocketing her public standing. Eliot and Silda Spitzer will put people back in touch with that same emotional reaction, reminding people who like Hillary of why they like Hillary.

Second, it's also a reminder of how little we know about the guys/women we elect to office. Spitzer had been around the block, seemed solid, and turned out to have some substantial personality issues. Who knew? Obama, as the guy in this race and also as the person less known and familiar inherits those liabilities.

Hillary's campaign at this point is based on tearing him down as untested -- and now we have a graphic reminder of the uncertainties that lurk behind an apparently solid exterior.