Spin Cycle

The story driving a lot of conversation today is this one, posted by two veteran political journalists at Politico, Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen. It argues that the press is pretending that the Democratic race is a tight battle, when in fact Hillary has almost no chance to win, and says the press needs to stop giving her the benefit of little doubt:

"Many people inside Clinton’s campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives. In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe."

It's being echoed in a lot of places, such as here and here. And, it's kind of buttressed by financial reports today showing that Obama has $30 million cash on hand, while Hillary has only $11 million for the primary season -- along with $8.7 million in debts to vendors, and $5 million she owes to herself.

There's no question that the virtual collapse this week of efforts to get a re-vote in Florida and Michigan has eroded Hillary's chances. But it's always a question how much the press is supposed to let its analysis drive its coverage, and from here it doesn't look quite so clear that Hillary is doomed.

There's no strong evidence that Obama has gotten over the Wright-related problems, and a lot of evidence that they've penetrated deeply among white, working-class voters. If that results in Obama not just losing in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky, but getting his doors blown off, and much tighter races than expected in North Carolina, it just doesn't seem that obvious that superdelegates won't pay attention.

The party can't afford to alienate black voters, but it also can't afford to hemmorhage working class whites.

That, at least, is our two cents worth.