It's now a month until Pennsylvania, which seems to be shaping up as an expectations game.
Clinton, with a big lead in a state whose demographics -- skewing old, fewer blacks than Ohio -- favor her, says it's really important. Obama is pointing toward North Carolina and Indiana two weeks later, where he's stronger. See the back and forth here.
Just for a reality check on expectations, we looked back today at an Obama tally sheet that "leaked" just after Super Tuesday, projecting delegate hauls in future races. (Copy after jump). The tally projects that, when all is said and done in June, Obama will be ahead 1647-1580. In fact, since Super Tuesday he's doing far better than he expected.
He projected 97 delegates on Feb. 9, and won 106 in La., Neb., Wash and VI, while Hillary came up 9 lower. He expected to lose Maine, and instead won it for a swing of 5. He overperformed by 9 in DC, Va. and Md. He got 56 instead of 51 in Wis. and Hawaii. In Ohio Hillary outperformed expectations by 2, 75-66. But Obama expected to lose Texas 101-92, and instead seems to have taken more delegates because of a win in the caucuses, 99-94.
Hillary got one more delegate than expected in Mississippi last night (losing 19-14), but in primaries beginning with Hillary's big night on March 4, Obama has actually gotten 4 more delegates.
So how do the upcoming states look? In February, Obama expected to lose Pennsylvania in votes 52-47 and delegates 83-75. But he projected winning 53 percent of the vote in both Indiana and North Carolina, for a total delegate haul of 100 to 87.
Right now, 52-47 looks a little optimistic for him in Pennsylvania, particularly in light of the racial turn the race has taken courtesy of Queens' own Geraldine Ferraro. So maybe Obama will start falling short of his own expectations. But so far, he hasn't.
