Spin Cycle

Hillary Clinton is, as we anticipated, trying to make hay out of the statements of former Obama foreign policy advisor Samantha Power that Obama's Iraq withdrawal plan would be contingent on conditions on the ground and advice from military experts.

These assertions seem to be intuitively correct, which is not to say that Clintonian posturing may not produce some serious political mischief. Three points:

First, if Obama wants to posture back, it's worth remembering that he is the candidate -- not Austin Goolsbee, and not Samantha Power. He can just say he doesn't agree, and he has a firm and fixied and unchangeable withdrawal plan. Which seems to be the approach he's taken today.

Second, there is evidence that Hillary actually agrees with Power. A Clinton adviser, according to a report in the NYSun this week, said he didn't think Hillary would actually withdraw in 2009. Four Star Jack Keane said he was "convinced she would hold off on authorizing a large-scale immediate withdrawal of American soldiers from Iraq." The Clinton campaign then, like Obama today, said he was wrong.

So: Both Democrats take the position that withdrawal can't be affected by anything that happens in Iraq, even though close advisors to each think they actually do intend to exercise the discretion most presidents would want.

Third: Do Democrats really believe that they can sustain the position that, come hell or high water, no matter what has happened, is happening or seems about to happen, the U.S. is withdrawing, no matter what? Are they ready to hear John McCain invent any possible nightmare hypothetical about Osama/terror/Iran/al Qaeda/progress/outbreak of sectarian violence that he can, and expect their candidates locked into saying, "It doesn't matter. We're leaving!"

As we suggested earlier this week, figuring out how to grapple with that issue is the real red-phone question facing the two Democrats. Power actually seemed to be making sense, pointing to a perfectly logical escape clause.

But right now, locked in their own death struggle, neither of the party's presidential contenders seems politically equipped to take advantage of it.