Spin Cycle

Here's one thing you should know watching the election returns tonight: Wisconsin's politics are notoriously unpredictable.

The state tends to swing wildly among liberal and conservative, sending to Congress the body's first openly lesbian woman (Tammy Baldwin, D-Madison) and the man who, among other things, introduced the Patriot Act and proposed criminal penalties for anyone who helps illegal immigrants (Jim Sensenbrenner, R-Menomonee Falls).

The state has an open primary. All voters choose between voting in Republican or Democratic races. There are no significant statewide or local races on the ballot.

Barack Obama figures to do well in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Congressional districts. The 1st sits along the Illinois border in the state's southeast corner. Parts of that district are in the Chicago TV market, which ought to help him. The 2nd encompasses liberal Madison - Baldwin's district, though she endorsed and has campaigned for Clinton. The 3rd is Rep. Ron Kind's (D-La Crosse) reliably liberal district and the 4th is Milwaukee, home to virtually all of the state's African-American population and the state's first black member of Congress, Gwen Moore (D-Milwaukee).

Hillary Rodham Clinton has the advantage in the 5th, 6th and 8th districts. Each is predominately white - though the 8th has a sizable Native Americans and Hmong populations. The 5th, Sensenbrenner's district, has a significant Hispanic population in Waukesha , though the city's mayor has endorsed Obama. The 6th, in the Fox Valley, is likewise very conservative. The question there will be how many conservative voters vote on the Democratic side of the ballot, and for whom they vote.

The 7th district, encompassing northwest Wisconsin and the part of the state locals call "Up North," figures to go for Obama but could go for Clinton. The local Congressman, the very liberal Dave Obey (D-Wausau) endorsed Obama, but the electorate is overwhelmingly white and blue-collar.

And, add this: In a past life, this blogger covered countless local government meetings in the Milwaukee suburbs. The sharpest put-down aldermen and political gadflies threw at each other was to say someone was "just like Hillary" or "acting like the Clintons." There is a deep well of dislike for Clinton, rational or not. But many of these conservative voters would like nothing more than to throw a monkey wrench into the Democratic primaries and some may vote for Clinton in an effort to do so.

-- Reid J. Epstein