For what seems like a year, we've been reading that Super Tuesday would settle everything, if anything needed to be settled after the early primaries. And for the Republicans, that may be so, especially if McCain sweeps Romney away in California.
For the Democrats, however -- forget about settling! We don't even know what a win is.
The Obama campaign put out a memo today (see it after the jump) arguing that if they're within 100 delegates tomorrow, they're in terrific shape. The Clinton campaign responded with a conference call saying they expect to win a "diverse mix" of states and be ahead in delegates after Tuesday, but predicting a "close and inconclusive" outcome. Both sides are saying they expect the race to continue, and not be settled.
A few thoughts:
1. If you're looking for benchmarks, the polls are too spotty, unreliable and all over the place to be very helpful. Here's one reporter/blogger's educated guesses -- six states including NY/NJ seem to be Hillary's; eight including Ill., Ga. and Minn. lean Obama; eight including Cal., Mo. and Mass. are tossups. Considering those last three were firmly in Hillary's column ten days ago, it's a sign of how the race has tightened. But here's another prediction that's more bullish on Hillary.
2. Because of proportional voting, both candidates will split delegates in every state; a big win in a medium state can be more valuable than a narrow win in a big state. Georgia's polls close first, and Obama is expected to do well -- will he get double digits? Ditto for Clinton in Tennesse, where she polls well. Polls say Obama is stronger in his home state of Ill. than Hillary in NY -- will the two zero each other out in delegates? Hillary still probably has the edge in California; Obama will hope to keep the margin narrow, and balance it off with wins in other, smaller western states. If Obama upsets Clinton in California, that will be very big.
3. It is true that Clinton is still generally viewed as the frontrunner, and widely believed that Obama is strong in most of the February primaries after tomorrow -- La., Wash., Neb., DC, Md., Va., Hawaii, Wis. So Obama can afford to be a little bit behind, because he'll have some good opportunities for the rest of the month.
4. But 100? With 1688 delegates at stake tomorrow, using a back of the envelope calculation, that computes....
to a net 6 percent win for Clinton -- essentially, 53-47 across 22 states; and 28 states altogether will be done. Just as proportional delegate allocation insulates Obama against being way behind after tomorrow, it could also make it hard for him to recover that much in 22 remaining state that would include challenges like Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania beginning in March.
5. Problems: A 6-point victory could, at least temporarily, break Obama's momentum. Remember, too, that Hillary has kept Michigan and Florida in play, with only upside for her. A lead of 100 pledged delegates, plus a 90-plus-vote lead in unpledged "superdelegates," plus the threat of a floor fight over seating Fla. and Michigan delegations could all combine to make a pretty powerful argument for swaying other superdelegates to her side, which could make the mountain steeper and steeper for Obama.
6. Conclusion: Obama has set his expectations pretty low. If he is behind by 100 delegates, he'll have quite a challenge.
7. There will be lots of different ways to measure the winner: By delegates; by votes; by states; by expectations; by regions; by direct primary wins vs. caucus wins; by red state wins vs. blue state wins, equating with 'electability.' Unless the polls are way off, both candidates will have an argument.
Map via CNN.
OBAMA MEMO::
February 4, 2008
To: Interested Parties
From: David Plouffe
RE: Putting Tomorrow into Perspective
Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could “wrap up” the nomination on February 5th. As the “inevitable” national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow.
Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states.
For example, California, which Clinton led by 25 points in October and 12 points two weeks ago, was once seen as the Clinton campaign’s firewall and where they planned to run up an insurmountable lead in delegates. Former Governor Gray Davis, a Clinton supporter, said on MSNBC last week, “I am pleased to be for Hillary Clinton and I expect her to do very well in Super Tuesday. I expect her to win California by a sizable amount, at least double digits, do well in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut.”
Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates.
Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests.
We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.
A performance that exceeds those benchmarks, while unlikely, would put is in a surprisingly strong position heading into the rest of the February contests.
While the Clinton campaign is furiously trying to spin the expectations game, it is important to look at where they were in some of the key states just a few weeks ago.
ALABAMA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Alabama By 15 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 15 points, 43% to 28%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]
ARIZONA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Arizona Obama By 21 Points. According to a poll done for the Arizona Republic that was released on January 23, Clinton led Obama 45% to 24%. [Arizona Republic, 1/23/08]
CONNECTICUT
Hartford Courant: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Connecticut By 14 Points. According to polling done for the Hartford Courant released on January 20, Clinton led Obama by 14 points, 41% to 27%. [Hartford Courant, 1/20/08]
DELAWARE
October 2007 Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 24 Points. According to polling done by Farleigh Dickinson that was released on October 10, Clinton led Obama by 24 points, 41% to 17%. [Fairleigh Dickinson, 10/10/07]
GEORGIA
In December 2007, Clinton Led Georgia By 7 Points. According to polling done by Strategic Vision released on December 12, Clinton led Obama by 7 points, 34% to 27%. [Strategic Vision, 1/22/07]
MASSACHUSETTS
Survey USA: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Massachusetts By 37 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 24, Clinton led Obama by 37 points, 59% to 22%. [Survey USA, 1/24/08]
MINNESOTA
October Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 25 Points In Minnesota. According to polling done by Mason Dixon released on October 2, Clinton led Obama 47%-33%. [Star Tribune, 10/2/07]
MISSOURI
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Missouri By 19 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 19 points, 43% to 24%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]
NEW YORK
Before February 5th, Clinton Led New York By 28 Points. According to polling done by USA Today and Gallup released on January 28, Clinton led Obama by 28 points, 56% to 28%. [Gallup, 1/28/08]
NEW JERSEY
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led New Jersey By 17 Points. According to polling done by Quinnipiac released on January 22, Clinton led Obama by 17 points, 49% to 32%. [Quinnipiac, 1/23/08]
OKLAHOMA
Three Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Oklahoma By 20 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 14, Clinton led Obama by 20 points, 45% to 25%. [Survey USA, 1/14/08]
TENNESSEE
Less Than One Week Before February 5th, Clinton Led Tennessee By 33 Points. According to polling done by Insider Advantage in Tennessee on January 30th, Clinton led Obama by 33 points, 59% to 26%. [Insider Advantage, 1/30/08]