Spin Cycle

Super Tuesday is an ADD guy's worst nightmare -- or greatest fantasy -- so I'm tuning everything else out and focusing on the following ten things:

1. California Uber Alles. A loss – even by a single vote – could be a devastating, perhaps irrecoverable setback for Hillary Clinton. The state is her second (or third? or fourth?) home. She was expected to dominate here and was comfortably ahead with double-digit leads prior to the South Carolina debacle. She has locked up most of the state’s leading politicians, white, black and Hispanic, and enjoys a 15-year relationship with the Hollywood power establishment. She’s an icon in a garden of celebrity. She is even believed to have an edge among the 40 percent of Californians who have already cast ballots through the state’s early-voting system because most are women, according to pollsters. A narrow win for her is defensible – especially since California’s apportionment system gives the victor a disproportionate share of delegates. But an Obama victory could give him monster momentum and demolish her claims to viability in a general election. And forget about her trying to raise serious money in La-Laland.

2. Can Obama win Massachusetts? He’s got the Kennedys, John Kerry and Gov. Deval Patrick. He’s got those crazy college kids and the anti-war, fed-up-with-the-establishment types who teach those crazy college kids. But even though Connecticut has flipped to Obama, the Bay State remains stubbornly pro-Hillary. Moreover, there are some signs that he’s encountering a backlash from the white, Boston-area working class folks. If he can’t win here, it will raise serious questions about his viability with lunch bucket Dems. And a Massachusetts win by Clinton would be her only glimmer of hope following a California defeat.

3. How much will Hillary win New York by? Anything less than ten points will be spun as a disaster. Anything less than a dozen, a disappointment. Twelve to 15? Okay. If she wins by more than 15, she gets to breathe easy – even though Obama will win Illinois by 20 or more.

4. Ladies’ Might. Women make up between 55 to 60 percent of the Democratic primary electorate and they saved Hillary in New Hampshire. She spent her last hours targeting them with a vengeance (Hallmark Channel, Near Tear II, Chelsea’s barnstorming tour, etc.) – but Obama has Oprah.

5. The Bradley/Wilder/Ford/Obama (?) Effect. Are white Democrats being honest with pollsters about voting for an African-American candidate? There’s some evidence they weren’t being totally straight in New Hampshire and Nevada – although nothing conclusive. If race is playing a creepy, hidden role today it will manifest itself in Obama numbers that are three to seven points below expectations, particularly in Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee and possibly California, experts say.

6. Jersey Girl. Hillary’s folks are reportedly furious at Gov. Jon Corzine for not working hard enough on her behalf. The state’s senior senator Frank Lautenburg has been equally inert, Clinton sources say, although junior Sen. Bob Menendez has been doing yeoman’s work with Hispanic voters. Obama’s best asset is energetic Newark Mayor Corey Booker, although Booker couldn’t help him fill a nearly empty Meadowlands arena on Monday. For Clinton, the polls are alarming but not scary. Obama has pulled to within 7 points, according to RealClearPolitics.com’s poll tracker -- but a loss or an under-5 win could be a major embarrassment.

7. John Edwards, on the sidelines in a cast. So far it seems his exit is helping Obama big-time, especially among white liberals in California, where he’s erased and possibly seized the lead. But the Clintons maneuvered deftly to keep him on the sidelines pre-Super Tuesday (even though it was in his interests to wait) and there’s no telling how much worse things would have been had he hosted a Sunday endorsement announcement with the Man from Illinois, as many expected.

8. Hispanic turnout. If it’s heavy in Southern California – and often it’s not – Clinton’s odds improve dramatically because she beats Obama two-to-one among Latinos. Bill Richardson’s Super Bowl viewing party with Bill Clinton should goose Latino turnout in New Mexico and Arizona and give Clinton an advantage.

9. McDemocrats. A handful of Feb. 5th states allow independents to cross over to vote in the Democratic primary, including California, Missouri, Minnesota, Tennessee, Arkansas, Georgia and Idaho. In all previous primaries and caucuses indies and unaffiliated voters have swung to Obama, albeit in numbers that were sometimes lower than expected. With John McCain cruising to his party’s nomination, it’s possible some of his independent supporters will go for to Obama because Mac doesn’t need them today.

10. Arkansas. She’s expected to win her old home state. But if she doesn’t, oy vey, as they say down south.

Glenn Thrush