Spin Cycle

The latest check on the Iowa Democratic Party website indicates that, with 1768 of 1781 precincts reporting, Edwards is at 29.81 percent, and Hillary is at 29.45 percent. Obama: 37.55 percent.

So, it's still third for her.

You can say that 70 percent of Democrats rejected the year-long national frontrunner, but you can also say that more than 60 percent rejected Obama. But here's the question: Are the Democrats who voted for Edwards with his populist, anti-establishment rhetoric, more likely to have Obama as their second choice, or Hillary?

Hillary seems unlikely. Which seems to mean she has to change the terms of the debate. She can't win if it's about change, and she hasn't been able to coopt change. She has to make it about experience, seasoning.