We've been looking at some numbers and reading the Democratic delegate selection rules to try to figure out what to look for on Long Island next Tuesday. Here's some basics:
Each of the Island's five Congressional Districts has 5 delegates, plus one alternate. Voters will vote for a presidential preference and for delegates, but it's the presidential vote that will determine which candidate gets how many of the delegates.
A candidate must get at least 15 percent of the votes to be eligible to get delegates. For each candidate getting over 15 percent, their percentage of the vote will be multiplied times 5. They will get delegates equal to whatever whole number results -- 2.3 would produce 2 delegates. Then, the person with the highest fractional amount gets a delegate, and the next highest fractional amount gets the next delegate, until the delegates are exhausted.
So, in a two-person race, 20 percent of the vote would be precisely equal to one delegate. But over 15 percent is enough to make a candidate eligible, and to get a delegate -- the other candidate would have 4.25, worth 4 delegates, but since the fraction .75 is more than .25, it gets the fifth delegate. The next benchmark would be 30 percent. Over 30 percent produces over 1.5 delegates, and leaves the other candidate under 3.5, so a second delegate goes to the greater fraction.
We also checked numbers from Hillary Clinton's primary race against Jonathan Tasini in 2006 for the Senate seat. He won 15.6 percent of the vote in Nassau County, and 15.39 percent of the vote in Suffolk. So, you'd surmise there's a pretty hard-core 15 pct. anti-Hillary vote that will give Obama one delegate in each CD out here. The question is whether he'll get to 30 percent, and two.
All told, 151 delegates will be selected based on these rules from.....
NY's 29 CDs. Six of them have six delegates; in those, 15% will earn 1, over 25% = 2, and 42 % is a 3-3 split. Another 81 delegates will be apportioned based on the statewide totals, using the same math. Reference points: Tasini got 16.3 percent statewide; the last four polls have given Hillary 45-51, Obama 23-33.
And finally: 49 party bigwigs -- including Hillary and former president Bill Clinton -- will go to the convention as unpledged superdelegates, free to vote for whoever they wish. Grand total: 281.
Here's the qualifier: This isn't exactly a two-person race. Edwards will be on the ballot. Technically he has suspended his campaign, not withdrawn. He'll probably get less than 15 percent. How will that affect the math? We have a call in to the state committee.
Update: We have an answer. Edwards, Biden, Richardson and Kucinich will all be on the ballot. If any happen to get 15 pct. of the vote, they get their delegate(s). If not, their votes are excluded and Hillary and Obama divide delegates based on proportions of the combined vote of the two of them.