Two days ago, the Clinton campaign reacted to a new poll showing Hillary slipping behind rival Barack Obama by criticizing it as flawed and embracing another survey that showed her with a slight lead.
Now, an updated version of the survey the Clinton campaign preferred - - done by Zogby International - - also shows her trailing the senator from Illinois.
The Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Iowa daily tracking poll shows Obama with a seven point lead over Clinton, who it indicates has slipped to third place in Iowa behind former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Obama was the choice of 31 percent of respondents, the first time he's passed 30 percent in the poll. Edwards was at 27 percent and Clinton at 24 percent. No other Democrat polled in the double digits.
Five percent of Democrats remain undecided, according to the poll, which means Clinton could either make up ground or suffer an even greater defeat.
Among Republicans, Mike Huckabee has strengthened to 31 percent in Iowa, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has slumped to 25 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain has slid to 10 percent. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has barely campaigned here, moved backward to 6 percent.
On Tuesday, Clinton pollster Mark Penn griped that a the poll showing Clinton as slipping - - a survey by the Des Moines Register - - should be discounted because it used a different methodology than it had four years ago. He said the Zogby poll, which as of Dec. 30 showed Clinton with a four - point lead over Obama, was more reliable.
What a difference four days can make.
Update: But see comments, below, where a reader correctly notes that Hillary is up in a new ARG poll.
--Martin Evans
Comments (8)
Twas the night of the caucus and all 'cross the state,
few voters are happy with the names on the slate.
Though each name is printed on the ballot with love,
the clear choice is missing: None of the Above.
-- Bob McCarty Writes™ at BobMcCarty.com
Err Mr. Evans, may be you should update your article.
Most recent Iowa Poll this morning is from ARG:
Clinton: 34
Obama: 25
Edwards: 21
Are we to believe our lying eyes? you tell me dude!
Americans have had enough of special interest and multi-national corporate candidates. Clinton, Obama, Huckabee and McCain are not what America needs.
America needs an American president.
Please don’t throw your vote away.
I heard Bush is leading the Iowa Republican caucus. It seems the voters are really impressed with his compassionate conservative agenda, his everyman persona, and his cathartic embrace of religious faith.
I found a poll from SFO that says Edwards is leading by 5 points. The fact is no one knows what is going to happen. The polls in Iowa mean nothing at this point because people walk away from caucuses when they realize they have to spend two hours moving around a room instead of simply voting in a booth. Plus the lower tier candidates will have their support go to their second choices after not reaching 15% and no poll takes that into account. Whoever has the best ground operation wins, PERIOD!!!! We wont know who that is until tonight.
If anyone bothered to look closely at the ARG poll (the one that had Clinton ahead), and by anyone I mean our sadly lazy news media, they'd see that 83% of its respondents are Democrats, and only 17% are independents. Assuming that close observers have even a clue, that's roughly 1/2 the number of independents who will actually show up. And among independents in their poll, Obama was way ahead. Basically, their sample is very different and only if it is right and other pollsters (Zogby, Des Moines Register) are wrong, do their numbers reflect reality.
Just got phone call, Thompson people says he gets 3rd tonight and looking for win in SC
If you cared or if you were bored, here are my predictions for tonight...
On the Dem side.....
Obama just gets by Hillary as people are just tired of the Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton program with the American Presidency.
Dems also know Hillary will be a "Lighting Rod " for the GOP which in the back of their minds spells disaster for them down the road.
Dems also know in the back of their minds that Obama is a complete "Rookie" as he was just a "State" Senator two years ago, (Doing what State Senators do best - Park dedications, Baby seat laws and Street namings).
Obma lack of experience will play in the back of the minds of the Dems.
Edwards draws votes from Clinton but finishes third tonight.
Clinton wins it all at the end of the game for the Dems.
On the GOP side....
It should be close, although Mitt has the ground troops and establishment behind him, Mitt will have car service everywhere to make sure his troops come to the rescue tonight.
But .....Loyal GOPers dislike Mitts constant flip-flops and protest these Mitt flip-flops with a Huckabee possible first place showing or very, very close second. Voters also protest the "Establishment Pick" of Mitt.
Huckabee gets just rewards tonight either way. The Huckster down fall at the end game will be Ed Rollins (His campaign manager - A Has been), lack of money and more of the Independent voters turn out in NH having play.
Expect perhaps better from the Huckster in South Carolina. At the end, Huckster will be the guy to be the VP to bring home the Social Conservatives for the final. Tonight first place for Huckster. (Very Close)
John McCain shows good numbers tonight and he did not even play the game much in Iowa. McCain will be possilbe first place showing in NH.
Fred Thompson still has possible life tonight as the "Surprise Dark Horse" in third place.
Rudy gets blown out tonight and the media will harp on this all week. Expect Rudy to throw a million in ads to counter this lose after NH and give him his last shot of his game plan. Rudy money in short supply.
Jim Kelly - NY Conservative Campaigns
Looks like ARG was wrong and the Des Moines Register was right on the money. Hillary can't selectively quote the final polling results. If she can't hold on in New Hampshire she is in big, big trouble.