Is Rudolph Giuliani thinking about skipping the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses next year?
He just might be. On Monday, after a campaign seminar at Harvard University, Giuliani campaign chief Mike DuHaime refused to commit his candidate to competing in the Iowa contest, which officially kicks off the race for the GOP nomination on Jan. 14, 2008.
Then yesterday, Giuliani’s campaign announced he would indeed make an Iowa swing in April – announcing his travel plans a full month in advance in a bid to head off a spate of Rudy-skips-Iowa stories.
Despite the trip, DuHaime’s comments and the early evidence suggest the campaign is at least toying with the idea of bypassing Iowa. Giuliani hasn’t stopped in Iowa since joining the race last November, even though he’s been to first-primary state New Hampshire once, first-Southern-primary state South Carolina twice and California twice.
Giuliani might decide he doesn’t want to take his chances with Iowa Republicans who tend to be strong religious conservatives. If so, he’d be betting that the emergence of a mega-primary day on Feb. 5, 2008 – where Giuliani could do well in states like New Jersey, California and Florida – would diminish the importance of Iowa anyway.
It’s a risky bet, especially if Giuliani were to falter in New Hampshire and South Carolina, right now expected to be No. 2 and 3 in line ahead of the Feb. 5 states. But it’s been tried -- John McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 but followed up with a crushing win over then-Gov. George W. Bush in New Hampshire. Of course, McCain’s defeat shortly thereafter in South Carolina spelled the beginning of the end for his campaign.
Craig Gordon