The most important development in the eleven-week old writers strike may have nothing to do with the writers - but it soon may.
The Directors Guild - which represents some 13,000 directors and various other behind-the-camera personnel - has reached a deal with the studios; this development could be an extraordinary one because many in Hollywood believe a DGA pact could serve as a template for the writers, as far as residuals from new media are concerned.
And then this potential ice-breaker: In the wake of this agreement, the major studios tentatively held out an olive branch to the striking writers, offering to jumpstart "informal" negotiations. (Writers and the studios haven't sat down in the same room in weeks.)
Here's the statement from the DGA:
"The Directors Guild of America (DGA) announced today that it has concluded a tentative agreement on the terms of a new 3-year collective bargaining agreement with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP).
Highlights of the new agreement include:
* Increases both wages and residual bases for each year of the contract.
* Establishes DGA jurisdiction over programs produced for distribution on the Internet.
* Establishes new residuals formula for paid Internet downloads (electronic sell-through) that essentially doubles the rate currently paid by employers.
* Establishes residual rates for ad-supported streaming and use of clips on the Internet.
“Two words describe this agreement - groundbreaking and substantial,” said Gil Cates, chair of the DGA's Negotiations Committee, in announcing the terms of the new agreement. “The gains in this contract for directors and their teams are extraordinary – and there are no rollbacks of any kind.”
Cates, by the way, is the director of the Oscars' telecast, and he's told people that the show will go on - by hook or by crook. More speculation: That Cates fully expects the DGA deal to be adopted by the writers, which will then pave the way for the Oscars telecast.
Here's the WGA response to the new deal:
"For over a month, we have been urging the conglomerates to return to the table and bargain in good faith. They have chosen to negotiate with the DGA instead. Now that those negotiations are completed, the AMPTP must return to the process of bargaining with the WGA. We hope that the DGA’s tentative agreement will be a step forward in our effort to negotiate an agreement that is in the best interests of all writers."
Cates, the legendary Oscars producer, who may have just brokered the most important deal of his life.
And the studios' joint statement: "We hope that this agreement with DGA will signal the beginning of the end of this extremely difficult period for our industry. Today, we invite the Writers Guild of America to engage with us in a series of informal discussions similar to the productive process that led us to a deal with the DGA to determine whether there is a reasonable basis for returning to formal bargaining. We look forward to these discussions, and to the day when our entire industry gets back to work. "
If you haven't been paying attention - and surveys suggest that most people haven't - the writers have been on strike since Nov. 2, sidelining virtually an entire industry and leading to talk that the Feb. 24 Oscars telecast may suffer the same fate as the Golden Globes this past Sunday. The WGA, meanwhile, is clearly torn on how to proceed: On the one hand, people need to pay bills, and this damn thing HAS gone on for over two months, so there's pressure by some writers to get something done sooner than later. 
Then, there are hardliners who may be suspecting at this very moment that the DGA - headed by Mr. Oscars himself - has made a clever end-run around them, and by doing so, will place enormous pressure on them to come up with their own pact before Feb. 24 rolls around.
The crux of the writers argument: That they want to ensure a revenue stream from "new media" like the Internet for years to come. It's hugely important for them because many assume - accurately, no doubt - that the "new" media is no longer new, but well established and growing rapidly. They also argue that new media revenue is largely irrelevant to the DGA, which traditionally gets only a small piece of the back-end action anyway. As a result, they don't think the DGA deal should serve as a template for their future deal.
In a Q&A posted on the DGA strike, Gil Cates (effectively) asks himself about this issue, and responds:
"Is it true that Residuals are less important to our members than to the members of other Guilds - as has been claimed in the press?"
Gil: "This has got to be the most ridiculous statement I have seen in the press this year. These self-proclaimed 'experts' have decided that just because a significant portion of our membership is made up of [glorified stage hands] and they have no interest in residuals.
"Well let me tell you exactly how much residuals matter to every single DGA member. Over the last ten years, residuals to our below-the-line members and to the Basic Pension Plan amount to more than 1/2 billion dollars. "
I lay all this out before you in numbing detail for two reasons: 1.) This afternoon's development may well mean that the Oscars will go forward, and 2.) We may - I emphasize may - be seeing the light at the end of this long dark tunnel called "the writers strike."