The TV Zone

Who’s the early early favorite on best drama category?

Let's just stick our neck out right here and right now - knowing full well that Emmy has a wonderful and irrepressible habit of chopping off those heads which tend to do so - and predict that "The Sopranos" will scoop up the award that really truly counts.

It earned fifteen nominations a little while ago, which is usually a sign that the voting members actually watched the submitted episodes. It smoked other nominees "Grey's Anatomy" (better season the year before), "House," "Heroes" and "Boston Legal." "24" was also shut out of the best drama category - a good indication that the voting members actually know a sure loser from a sure winner (or maybe "24" just didn't bother to submit this time; if so, good decision.)

Here's something else that works in favor of "The Sopranos" - subliminal persuasion. After years of reading (if not necessarily believing) the words "best TV drama ever" when the subject of "The Sopranos" is broached in print in most newspapers and magazines, maybe voting members have finally been convinced. If this IS the best drama ever, then won't they look REALLY silly on September 16 when they give the little statue to (say) "Boston Legal?"

But they've looked silly before- in fact, they almost always look silly, so I'm not going to write off "Boston Legal's" chances just yet either. But other factors in favor of "The Sopranos" for best drama: It was the last season of the GTVE (that's "Greatest TV Drama Ever"); it was actually a pretty good season, though certainly not the best; David Chase could easily have pulled three episodes for nom that were superlative; the finale was a huge disappointment and didn't actually end (unless my TV did in fact break - I'm still not sure) but no doubt many voters loved the impish, post-mod, ending-without –an-end.

Meanwhile, I'm a little worried about Edie Falco's chances - she got a best actress nod along with Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU"), Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters"), Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer"), Patricia Arquette ("Medium") and Minnie Driver ("The Riches"). You know how much award voters like - they really like - Sally Field. Plus that Patty Arquette sure knows how to make voters love her too (inexplicably, but this is the Emmys.) Still, Kyra has to be the favorite of this field.

James Gandolfini got a a best actor nod, too - but so did Kiefer Sutherland, Hugh Laurie ("House"), James Spader ("Boston Legal") and Denis Leary ("Rescue Me.") Sutherland, a repeat? Emmy loves those (it's the well-established Emmy Law of Inertia). Spader? Another longtime Emmy favorite...but a win over Gandolf? Leary? Maybe the long shot of the group, but dear old sentimental Emmy loves to prove that even the long shots, however undeserving, can still win. Laurie? My gut tells me the Acerbic One has this one in the bag.

So let’s conclude: If both Gandolf and Edie lose out in their categories, that’ll make voters even more likely to give GTVDE the big award. I know the logic sounds twisted and strange, but we are talking about Emmy here.

Greatest TV drama ever: How could it not win? Well...