Now that the "American Idol" Top 12 is set, it turns out that all of Ryan Seacrest's relentless blabbering about "the most talented group ever" turns out to be true. Even this week's clunkers -- "girly" Luke Menard and "robotic" Kady Malloy -- were nowhere near as bad as past Top 24 nightmares. (Oh, Antonella Barba, you really were some sort of cruel "Idol" producers joke, weren't you?)
While last year's Top 12 looked like the gals would dominate (and they did, taking 3 of the Top 4 spots), this one looks like it will be the run by the guys -- probably one named David.
Here's a shot in the dark prediction on how the Top 12 will finish:
1. David Archuleta. The one to beat. He has a good voice and the personality that will land him big chunks of both the teenage girl and the grandma vote. When it comes down to pop sweetness and pop innovation, sweetness will win every time. The only thing that could bring him down is if he gets perceived as too pre-programmed, but his excellent pre-programming will, no doubt, prohibit that.
2. David Cook. He really is this year's Daughtry -- though maybe a little more likable and a little less self-involved. "Idol" producers still are kind of smarting that Season 5's biggest star finished fourth and they will do what they can to help Cook finish stronger to help the contest's industry credibility. If Archuleta stumbles, Cook will be ready to step in with his rock-but-not-too-rock vocals and aw-shucks personality.
3. Carly Smithson. There's a reason why she's a ringer and the "Idol" powers, including former label mate Randy Jackson, will work to support her. She has a great voice, but increasingly questionable judgment when it comes to song choices. Once she has her big moment, though, and we all know that's coming, she'll ride it all the way into the Big Three.
4. Jason Castro. The year's dark horse. His "Hallelujah" was truly an inspired choice, proving he was an artistic force and a crafty "Idol" player. If he can pull a series of stunning moves out of his dreadlocked-head, he could engineer an upset. At this point, though, it's not clear if "Hallelujah" was a fluke or not.
5. Brooke White. I admit it, I underestimated the appeal of her laid-back, girl-next-door vibe early on. She has a good voice and a winning personality that will help her float to the top, though unless she makes up for her lack of grit, she might not get much higher.
6. Michael Johns. The contest's other ringer continues to smolder without catching fire. We got it. He's got a Michael Hutchence vibe and he does it well. But unless he shows some other side, he's going to quickly become a parody of himself.
8. Ramiele Malubay. A sweet girl with a sweet voice who could go really far in the competition if she figures out how to play. My heart says she's great, but my head knows that she's made a few errors already and her second-guessing herself will only trip her up further. If she got the institutional help Carly's gonna get, she could be a threat, but that seems unlikely. So sorry about that.
9. Syesha Mercado. Another early favorite who is fading before our eyes, with missteps caused by her desire to fit in rather than trying to be herself. The world doesn't need another Whitney, but it could really use a Syesha.
10. Amanda Overmyer. There's a look that Amanda's been getting the last few weeks that seems to say, "What on earth am I doing here?" Despite her great vocals, she just seems increasingly uncomfortable with the whole process and that will lead to an early, if not entirely deserved, exit.
11. Chikezie. Nice, but boring. I actually remember more about his clothes than his actual performance and, frankly, I have no interest in anyone's clothes.
12. Kristy Lee Cook. She may go down as the best singer ever to be cut first, but that will likely be hard to remember too.
Oh, and how did with my Top 24 predictions? I picked 10 of the Top 12, with Brooke getting in instead of Asia'h Epperson and Jason Castro (who we had not seen at all at that point) getting in instead of Danny Noriega.