If this morning's Billboard prediction comes true, 50 Cent may have to bid his recording career goodbye.
Last month, 50 told the hip-hop Website SOHH.com he would stop releasing solo albums if Kanye West's new disc, "Graduation," outsold his newest, "Curtis." Both were released yesterday.
But early sales reports show that Kanye West actually is outselling 50, according to Billboard. Though official Nielsen SoundScan figures won't be available until Wednesday, Sept. 19, executives at three major labels say they expect West to sell around 700,000 copies in the first week, while 50 will come in at around 600,000.
According to The Los Angeles Times, which quotes a handful of record stores from the small Amoeba franchise to the behemoth Virgin Entertainment Group, West is outselling 50 by about two to one.
On Amazon.com, West's "Graduation" is the No. 1 seller, with 50's "Curtis" trailing at No. 3. Holding the No. 2 spot is Bruce Springsteen's "Magic," which won't be available until Oct. 2 but is available by pre-order. Amazon's rankings change hourly.
Another potential embarrassment for 50 Cent: Country star Kenny Chesney, who 50 has casually dismissed as a contender in this week's record-sales battle, may actually sell about the same amount as the rapper, Billboard reported. Chensey's "Just Who I Am: Poets & Pirates," was also released yesterday. It's at No. 4 on Amazon.
To be sure, the race for the No. 1 spot on the Billboard chart is far from over. But there were early signs pointing to West as the favorite.
West has broader appeal than 50, and his pop singles "Gold Digger" and "Diamonds From Sierra Leone" are still fresh in listeners' minds. His unique-sounding single "Stronger," which borrows its robotic hook from Daft Punk, is currently No. 2 on Billboard's Hot 100 chart. And the oddball video for the song "Can't Tell Me Nothing," directed by the comedian Zach Galifianakis, became an Internet hit that earned West additional exposure beyond the hard-core rap fanbase.
In addition, West has been a near-constant presence as a live act, whether headlining his own tours, performing on the Grammys, supporting the Rolling Stones or playing this summer's globally-broadcast Live Earth concert.
Meantime, 50 Cent's "Curtis" seems aimed squarely at the gangsta-rap crowd at a time when rap sales have been plunging. (In 2006, sales of rap CDs were down 20% over the year previous, a bigger drop than most other music genres.) His single "Ayo Technology," despite assistance from Justin Timberlake and Timbaland, peaked at No. 18 on the Billboard chart.
And while 50 is planning a "5 Borough Tour" of New York beginning tonight, that may not make up for the widespread touring West has already done.
If West does become the victor when the official chart positions are released next Wednesday, 50 Cent will have to either put an end to his solo career as he promised, or perhaps engage in some Clintonesque verbal footwork. But the rapper didn't leave himself much room to maneuver. Here's his quote from the SOHH.com Website, which started this whole affair:
"Let's raise the stakes. If Kanye West sells more records than 50 Cent on September 11, I'll no longer write music. I'll write music and work with my other artists, but I won't put out any more solo albums."