Is Murdoch showing a little doubt about his getting Newsday?
Nearly everyone in Medialand seems certain Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. will soon be the new owner of Newsday. The only one now showing a little bit of doubt might be Murdoch himself.
At a company conference call on Wednesday, Murdoch confidently predicted success with $580 million bid, even though it is considerably lower than the $650 million from Cablevision's Charles Dolan. Daily News owner Mort Zuckerman also submitted a competing $580-million bid for the paper.
"No, I don't think Cablevision will prevail," said Murdoch, predicting he'd be approved within a week. "Just be patient a couple of days." Murdoch indicated he though he had a tentative deal with Tribune's chief Sam Zell for Newsday. " We think everything's in hand."
Even long-time Cablevision watchers think Murdoch's the one.
"I think it's a done deal," said Chris Marangi, an analyst at Gabelli & Co, which has also been a stakeholder in the cable firm. "Murdoch doesn't say things by accident."
But at gala Time magazine event on Thursday night, Murdoch conceded his comments to Newsday at the conference call might have been a little premature.
According to The New York Observer, Murdoch "tempered his bravado", referring to his comments from a day earlier."Yeah, I might have gone a little too far saying it was a certainty," he told The Observer. "I was telling the truth, but you don't know until ..." without finishing the sentence.
According to the Observer, Murdoch later said "[Mr. Zell] has a great reputation with the banks and the financial circles everywhere." Zuckerman, also at the Time affair, had a "no comment" when asked if he might increase his $580 million bid for Newsday. The Observer originally wanted to team up with Cablevision in a joint bid for Newsday but has bowed out for now.
Although Marangi thinks Murdoch will likely prevail, his analysis of Cablevision's finances shows that the company's roughly $650 million in estimated free cash flow available this year matches the amount of money bid by Dolan thus far. Without adding significnatly to its long-term debt, Marangi said, Cablevision could probably up its bid even more if necessary.
"If he [Dolan] wanted to, he could go further, but he has a board [of directors] too and he doesn't have carte blanche," Marangi said. In a battle of media billionaires for Newsday's future, Marangi said, "Murdoch's pockets are a lot deeper."
--Thomas Maier